Don't you realize there's always a recession somewhere? You just have to look around. And that's often a good place to start investing.
There's something else I want to get off my chest for all you optimists out there. Don't you realize there's always a recession somewhere? You just have to look around. And that's often a good place to start. If you're looking to hide somewhere, why don't you invest in something that's already gone through the gauntlet?
It doesn't take a genius to find these things. Look at trucking and freight. You now have 13 quarters that have been down. This is pretty obvious. The freight industry has a real downturn in 2025—13 quarters of soft demand, low rates, and high costs isn't normal. I'm sure you could figure it out with your fancy Bloombergs, but I'll spell it out. Long-haul trucking volumes are down 30% year over year. Spot rates have dropped from around $3 a mile at the peak to $2.30 a mile in the middle of 2025. And it keeps going down. Fuel and insurance costs are staying elevated. Drivers went from earning about $1 a mile in profit in 2021 to just $0.03 in 2023. But their operating costs are still around $0.40 per mile. You do the math—I'm sure you can use some calculators for the arithmetic.
It means things are bad. You have a massive freight recession right now. When that ends, it's hard to say. But there's no question that if you find a company with very little debt that operates trucks, that's a pretty good place to be right now. It's already suffering its recession, and maybe there's still more to go on the downside. But on the upside, let's face it—trucking is how most stuff gets from A to B.